Waiting for Jeffersonian Democracy in Iraq

After the First Gulf War, General Colin Powell ridiculed the idea that if Saddam Hussein somehow disappeared "some Jeffersonian democrat is waiting in the wings.....there should be no illusions about the nature of that country or its society. " He added that if the US had gone onto Baghad, American soldiers [ would be patrolling the streets two years later still looking for Jefferson [ laughter]."

When the WMD pretext for the Second Gulf War finally collapsed, the George W. Bush administration and Secretary of State Powell replaced it with a new justification–preparing the way for a Jeffersonian Iraq. Amazingly, that idea quickly gained traction in our nation which was weaned on Jeffersonian and Wilsonian idealism. Never mind that Jeffersons’ belief that democracy was inevitable elsewhere was absolutely not predicated on exporting it by American troops.

Speaking of all of democracy’s advances in Iraq, Sy Hersh has just produced overwhelming evidence that the American administrators worked mightily to fix the election Our efforts reduced what would have been even greater Shiite dominance. They were partly counterbalanced by Shiite rigging. So much for the election that was a great triumph of democracy. It should be noted that the rigging was done as an off the books operation by retired security men as the administration failed to get the covert Congressional approval required by law.

Delegates are are now writing a new constitution for the Islamic Republic of Iraq, which states that its laws will be firmly based in the Koran. Voters should be ble to pass on it in October. Paragraph 16 recognizes the unique right of the Shiite Grand Ayatollah to instruct the state. Some think this could mean that his fatwas could overrule secular laws. The constitution contains provisions moving it away from a secular state, giving Shiite law a firm grip. One consequence of this is that the rights of women will be diminished.

Two years ago, respected Muslim scholar Tariq Ali wrote that it was likely that Iraq would eventually be divided into three pieces, the largest of which would be a Shiite state allied with Iran. As matters now stand, Iran and Iraq are now military allies, and Iraq is being ruled by people who had been exiles in Iran before the fall of Saddam. In other words, Iraq is allied with one of the two remaining members of the "axis of evil." For several decades, US planners have looked for a strong counterweight to Iran in the region. George W. Bush’s policies have strengthened Iran immeasurably.

The more worldly and cynical of us might be willing to justify the invasion if it gave the US a strong grip on Iraq’s oil. Bush’s neoconservative advisors clearly intended to sell the oil assets off to American firms, thus reducing the price of oil. Soon, the American oil industry prescribed an Iraqi state oil firm that would support OPEC. This would help American refiners by guaranteeing high prices, so the American administration in Baghdad reversed course. The US is building permanent bases athwart major pipelines, so the intention might be to control the flow of oil in that way.

The reasons for invading Iraq remain unclear. AS for Jeffersonian democracy, we have a long, long wait ahead of us.